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Annual Gasoline Outlook


A detailed assessment of the mid/long-term operating environment for the global gasoline market.

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Overview

The Annual Gasoline Outlook is FGE’s detailed assessment of the mid/long-term operating environment for the global gasoline market. In this new study we forecast gasoline supply and review changing demand dynamics to identify the key factors at play.

Global gasoline demand is expected to grow from now until 2030, before falling from 2030 to 2050. Most of the growth will come from the Asian market, where the light vehicle fleet will grow at double the rate as in the rest of the world.

Although we think the sale of pure internal combustion engine (ICE) cars has now peaked, ICE cars and vans will still continue to account for more than half of the world’s light vehicle fleet by 2050. As a result, fuel economy improvements – and not the rise of electric vehicles – will remain the most important factor behind the slowdown of global gasoline demand growth until 2035, after which time electrification will start to play a bigger role.

In this study we assess the global vehicle fleet and the changes happening within it over the next 30 years as many countries start to or look to implement bans on the sales of new ICE vehicles. We then factor these developments into our outlook for gasoline demand on a region-by-region basis, while also analysing trends in global refinery capacity and the impact these will have on gasoline supply.

 

Key Areas Addressed

  • Global gasoline supply and demand projections until 2050 for markets both West and East of Suez.
  • An assessment of the changes to the global light vehicle fleet on a regional basis out to 2050 and the impacts that these will have on gasoline demand.
  • Discussion around global refinery capacity through to 2040 and the impact on gasoline supply from changes in CDU capacity and secondary unit usage.

Deliverables

  • One PDF soft copy of the report
  • Up to three hours of consultation with FGE’s Light Distillate team available per year.

Scope of Coverage

  • Part I: Executive Summary
    • Introduction and Concepts
    • Summary 
  • Part II: Global Gasoline Demand Outlook
    • Key Demand Factors
    • Light Vehicles Fleet by Fuel
    • ICE vs. EV Trends
    • Hydrogen in Road Transport
  • Part III: Road Transport Outlook
    • Vehicle Fleet Changes by Region
    • Road Fuels Demand
  • Part IV: Global Refining Outlook
    • Refinery Capacity Forecast
    • Refining Margins by Region
    • Light Distillate Cracks
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