Overview
Gain the strategic edge you need with the Annual World Refining Outlook 2025. Our expert analysis forecasts product demand, tracks refinery investments, and uncovers the key pressures shaping refining margins through 2050. Make smarter decisions and stay ahead in the evolving oil products market with FGE NexantECA’s trusted insights.
Introduction
The global refining sector is entering a period of profound transformation. Capacity additions are slowing, refinery closures are accelerating, and regional disparities are widening. For operators, investors, producers, and traders, this creates a landscape filled with both risk and opportunity.
Does your team have the clarity to make confident decisions in this rapidly evolving market?
The Challenges Facing Today’s Refining Players
- Capacity Uncertainty: Global refining capacity additions are projected to stall by the end of this decade—even as oil products demand continues to grow. Meanwhile, refinery closures are set to hit their highest level since 2021.
- Margin Volatility: With the end of record-breaking margins, the next decade will see margins stay supported, but volatility and uncertainty in the market will continue. Can your business adapt quickly enough?COVID-19 forced many refinery closures for a variety of reasons: the prospect of low margins, the high cost of staying in business and growing ESG pressure.
- Regional Divergence: East of Suez (EoS) regions like China, India, and the Middle East are investing in new capacity and petrochemical integration, while West of Suez (WoS) faces ongoing closures and rising operational costs.
- Shifting Product Demand: Asia’s appetite for petrochemical feedstocks is surging, WoS gasoline and diesel demand is declining, and jet fuel demand is robust across all regions. How will you adjust your operations and trading strategies?
- Decarbonisation Pressure: ESG mandates and regulatory pressure are forcing a pivot to cleaner operations—but the costs and pathways are complex and uncertain.
FGE NexantECA: Your Strategic Advantage
The Annual World Refining Outlook 2025 is your comprehensive guide to navigating these challenges. Here’s how our analysis, insights, and forecasts empower you to stay ahead:
- Independent, Data-Driven Analysis
- Get an up-to-date, independent assessment of where the international refining industry stands—and where it’s headed.
- Leverage our unique global balancing process to understand shifting product trade patterns and their impact on your business.
- Actionable Insights for Every Stakeholder
- Downstream Operators: Identify whether pressures stem from local or global trends, and optimise your response.
- Integrated Companies & Investors: Gain authoritative data to inform portfolio strategy and capital allocation.
- Product Traders: Spot emerging trends in trade flows before your competitors do.
- Crude Producers & Shipping Operators: Anticipate changes in crude demand, pricing, and tanker requirements.
- Forecasts That Drive Confident Decisions
- Detailed projections for refining capacity, utilisation, margins, and product balances—by region and product, out to 2050.
- Decarbonisation Pathways—Demystified
- An overview of current trends and emerging strategies in refinery decarbonisation.
- Full Support from Industry Experts
- Access all data in user-friendly formats (PowerPoint and Excel).
- Schedule a consultation with our senior consultants to discuss key findings and how they apply to your business.