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FGE's price predictions


Oil prices could be under severe downward pressure unless OPEC can reduce output to near 29 mmb/d. Despite Saudi Arabia citing to OPEC that it had cut output by some 400 kb/d in August to 9.6 mmb/d, cutting a further 1 mmb/d may be too much to shoulder on its own.

FGE expect prices to come under significant continued downward pressure into October. Assuming that OPEC does not take any surprise radical action in the next few weeks, we now see a high chance of Brent prices falling to an average of $90/bbl in October, before OPEC starts to make supportive moves which could then lead to some price recovery to $95/bbl (say) in November/December. If the price drop we now anticipate is even more intense, OPEC may be faced with the need to call an emergency meeting before the next scheduled conference on 27th November.

As featured in FGE's "World Oil Market Report, 10th September 2014", part of the Short-Term Global Oil Market Service.


Further information on FGE's Short-Term Global Oil Service can be found online by clicking on the link below.


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