While the decision by OPEC+ members on 3 February to press ahead with plans to increase oil production quotas from April has offered a measure of certainty on future oil volumes, other geopolitical factors, such as potential US decisions on sanctions against Russia and Iran, continue to make the near term crude oil supply and demand outlook difficult to call, Dr Iman Nasseri, Managing Director, Middle East at Facts Global Energy (FGE), told delegates at this week’s Middle East Bunkering Convention in Dubai.
Giving a keynote speech at the top of the conference, which brought together nearly 160 delegates, Dr Nasseri said that FGE’s estimate for demand growth in 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d), which is in line with its predictions made for 2024.
‘Anything beyond 1.2 million b/d is considered to be normal demand growth - at least before we reach the demand peak and a declining market,’ he said.
‘The issue is supply – we have about 6-7 million b/d on paper and at least 5 million b/d readily available spare capacity barrels of production which is being kept out of the market waiting for the right time to come back.
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