Iran currently exports 100,000-150,000 barrels per day (bpd) of condensate which mainly goes to China, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates, according to FGE.
If Trump tightens sanctions on Iran, its condensate exports to UAE and China will likely fall or stop completely as there are less buyers for the ultra light oil than for Iranian crude, Iman Nasseri, a managing director at FGE, told the Condensate & Naphtha Forum.
However, Iranian condensate exports to Venezuela, at around 30,000 bpd, would continue, he added.
The Middle East produces around 2.5 million bpd of condensate, accounting for about 40% of global supply, with more production to come from gas fields in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Qatar's North Field Expansion project, expected to start from the first quarter of 2026, will add 400,000 bpd condensate capacity though 2030, said FGE analyst Samuel Ho.