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Overview

FGE’s Fuel Oil Foresights is a fortnightly report featuring key insights and market analysis on the global residual fuel oil market.

The IMO 2020 fuel oil regulation has seen a segmentation of the marine fuels market. The price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) and High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) continue to be shaped by various market forces.

As part of our Fuel Oil Foresights report, FGE takes a deep dive into the supply/demand fundamentals of VLSFO and HSFO on a region-by-region basis to provide a holistic picture of the global residual fuel oil market.

FGE combines insights from conversations with key stakeholders and detailed market analysis to provide a fortnightly report on the global residual fuel oil market. To do this, we leverage our extensive expertise in refining and oil markets, as well as longstanding client relationships across the refining, trading, power generation and shipping sectors.

Scope of Coverage

  • Coverage - Supply
    • Refinery Investment: Refinery additions/closures tracked in detail; focusing on current and new technologies impacting low and high sulphur fuel oil availability.
    • Inventories: Provides analysis on residual fuel oil inventories across the major hubs of Singapore, Fujairah, ARA and the USA.
    • Fuel Availability: Provides supply analysis of VLSFO and HSFO across various countries, identifying the shorts and lengths in each region by marine fuel type.
    • Other Competing Fuels: Looks at the viability and adoption of other competing sources of fuels, such as LNG, ammonia and methanol in bunkering, and alternative fuels that may displace residual fuel oil in the power generation sector.
  • Coverage - Demand
    • Bunker Statistics: Provides analysis on bunker sale volumes in the key hubs of Singapore, South Korea, China, Fujairah, and Panama, categorized by marine fuel type.
    • Technological Advances: Analyses the impact of other competing sources of residual fuel oil demand, such as the power generation sector, and how this will impact pricing. 
  • Coverage - Price
    • VLSFO and HSFO Price Coverage: Leveraging 30 years of experience forecasting oil prices gives us a unique edge in understanding the fundamental implications of supply and demand and their impact on the various bunker fuels.
    • VLSFO and HSFO Arbitrage Prices: Analyses the arbitrage of VLSFO and HSFO prices between the key hubs and Singapore, taking into account the volatile freight costs between regions.

This Service Will Add Value To

Commodity Trading Houses

  • Provides supply/demand fundamentals of VLSFO and HSFO on a region-by-region and global basis.
  • Identify opportunities for value creation in terms of supplying VLSFO and HSFO and taking advantage of potential regional arbitrage.
  • Forward views on VLSFO and HSFO cracks, prices and Hi-5 (VLSFO-HSFO) and 5GO (GO-VLSFO) spreads.

Refiners

  • Evaluate FCC unit economics and low sulphur crude straight run margins to provide an analytical view on refinery optimization strategies.
  • Keep abreast of innovative and new refining investments pertaining to the supply of VLSFO and HSFO in a capital-constrained sector.
  • Informs bunker fuel marketing strategies for refiners.

Ship Owners and Charterers

  • Provides supply/demand fundamentals of VLSFO and HSFO on a region-by-region basis.
  • Identify opportunities for value creation in terms of supplying VLSFO and HSFO and taking advantage of potential regional arbitrage.

Fuel Storage Companies

  • Keeping fuel storage companies abreast of developments at particular ports as well as changing dynamics on certain routes.
  • Provide up-to-date information on inter-regional fuel oil flows.

Port Authorities

  • Identity infrastructure constraints for ports, as well as competing bunker hubs and incentives.
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