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Outlook for International Products Trade Through 2030

FGE’s new study provides a comprehensive perspective on the likely volume shifts expected to become apparent in the main oil products trade routes.

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FGE is pleased to announce the completion of its new study, Outlook for International Products Trade Through 2030, providing a new bottom-up forecast of developments in global oil products trade in 2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030.

Global refining capacity will increase by 7 mmb/d over the next 10 years. Asia continues to have the highest amount of new capacity expected. Middle East has a second phase of capacity additions due in the early 2020s. In Africa, the 650 kb/d Dangote refinery is a game changer. In the FSU, CDU investment all but done, yet plenty of coking, hydrocracking, and desulphurisation still to come. In Latin America, investment has all but dried up.

While new CDU (and condensate splitting) capacity is being added, refiners are increasingly focusing on upgrading and product quality improvement.

In the meantime, global oil demand is projected to grow by an annual average of 1 mmb/d between now and 2030, particularly driven by transport fuels and petrochemical feedstock needs. Peak oil demand is not expected until the early 2030s, due to continuing growth in non-OECD Asia (particularly India and China).

Demand growth tails off slowly thereafter. We expect total products demand to be over 102 mmb/d in 2020, 108 mmb/d in 2025, 112 mmb/d in 2030 and 114 mmb/d in 2040 (compared with just under 98 mmb/d in 2017).

We continue to expect global products trade to increase, with the traditional refining centres of Europe and the US exporting to the burgeoning demand regions of Asia Pacific and Latin America.

This detailed set of projections is based on our long-established annual regional refining study and provides detailed matrices of export/import tables for all the main products (LPG, naphtha, gasoline, jet/kerosene, gasoil/diesel, and fuel oil).

Scope of Coverage

  • Coverage - Part 1

    Background on the Outlook for Global and Regional Demand, Refining, and Product Balances:

    • The refining investment environment over the next decade and implications for regional capacity developments, including the level and location of refinery closures.
    • The implications for regional product balances—how this will impact global product trade flows.
    • Regional oil demand by product through 2030.
    • How will changing products quality specifications affect trade flows?
  • Coverage - Part 2

    Trade Flow Projections and Future Trade Patterns Through 2030:

    • Detailed projections of product trade movements for six product groups and seven refinery regions.
    • Includes focus on the nearer term.
    • Role of products trading hubs.
    • Identifying the key game changers.
    • Address main products trade flow drivers.
    • Outlook for inter-regional and product/crude price differentials.
  • Deliverables
    • PDF copy of the report (in PowerPoint format)
    • FGE will be available for a conference call, WebEx meeting, or a general meeting to present and discuss the key findings of the report
    • All associated tables available in Excel.
    • A PowerPoint Executive Presentation Pack, providing a visual summary of the key coverage and conclusions, accompanied by bullet point explanations.

This Service Will Add Value To

  • Refiners Projected changes in product balances and trade flows, and implications for future operation strategies.
  • Shippers Implications of changing trade patterns for the tanker industry, including vessel size and voyage length.
  • Oil Products Traders Trading and arbitrage opportunities arising from changing trade patterns.
  • Storage & Terminal Operators To what extent will the changing pattern of product trade require new oil storage facilities?

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