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Global Crude Trade Study


FGE's Global Crude Trade Study 2018 assesses how the world's crude slate will change over the coming years.

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Overview

In a world of rising US production and OPEC output cuts, we assess how the world's crude slate will change over the coming years.

Global crude trade is going through a rapid transformation. US crude exports have taken the world by storm in the past 12 months. The US has broken into the world’s top 10 crude exporters already, and will soon move into the top 5. As production in US tight oil production continues to grow, terminal operators in the US Gulf Coast have been expanding export capabilities to meet growing export demand.

Global seaborne trade as a result is ramping up, projections of crude tonne miles show sustained growth over the next decade.

 Seaborne -trade

Whilst light sweet crudes dominate growth in the short term, the world is being presented by a changing crude slate; one that is getting lighter and sweeter by the day.

Crude -quality

FGE’s latest Crude Trade Study both identifies and examines the trends in global crude production by addressing the production outlook for over 400 crude streams across the globe, vs. crude demand across all regions. In addition, this study also identifies the likely changes in global crude trade by region, and analyses the impact on global seaborne crude trade, tonne miles, and crude tanker demand. Finally, we assess the outlook of global crude quality and the availability of crude oil by API and sulphur content.

Key Features of This Study

  • 400 crude streams assessed and modelled across the world, identifying API and sulphur content, trends in global crude quality and availability of certain grades.
  • Regional crude balances derived from our detailed analysis of crude and condensate demand in FGE’s Annual World Refining Outlook coupled with our detailed supply analysis.
  • Detailed review of US export infrastructure in Texas.
  • Over 80 crude routes assessed and forecast out to 2030 across the world to establish historic and projected tonne miles for crude.
  • Historic and future crude trade by region, identifying pressure points and outlets for the changing shape of global crude supply and demand.

Crude Qualities

  • Heavy
  • Light
  • Medium
  • Condensate

Deliverables

  • FGE Global Outlook for Crude Oil and Trade.pdf (3.4 mb)
  • FGE will be available for a conference call, WebEx meeting, or general meeting to present and discuss the key findings of this report.
  • FGE Crude Trade Outlook 2018.xls (220 kb)

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