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Heavy & Heavy Full-Range Naphtha Study

FGE's detailed assessment of the mid/long-term outlook for Naptha

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FGE’s detailed assessment of the mid/long-term outlook for naphtha sets the stage on fundamental shift occurring within the oil and gas markets going forward – the pivot from transportation fuels into petrochemicals amid the energy transition.

In this study, we forecast naphtha supply and demand globally using bottom-up modelling to explore impacts and trends for naphtha trade and pricing up to 2035.

The first half of 2020 saw the plummeting of crude prices to multi-year lows with the movement restrictions across the globe resulting in the demand destruction of gasoline globally. Naphtha was pushed out of the gasoline barrel within various refining systems (e.g. in the US, Europe, and India), finding a home in the East. Is this a rehearsal for what’s to come?

The 2020s will see radical shifts in the Atlantic Basin gasoline trade of products with refining capacity in the West African region touted to eradicate much of the oil product deficit in the African continent. These will undoubtedly impact gasoline blending margins and refining margins in the West of Suez.

In the East of Suez, we are seeing a radical growth in the deficit of naphtha, largely driven by capacity additions and expansions on olefins in the East Asian and South East Asian regions. With incremental refining capacities in the East through the 2020s largely integrated downstream with petrochemicals units, where will the incremental naphtha come from?

In a world where refineries are increasingly integrated downstream with petrochemicals with the foreseeable decline in transportation fuel demand, how will the cost curve for naphtha-fed projects evolve through the 2020s? How will the pricing and trade of naphtha evolve through the next decade with a weaker pull from gasoline and a stronger pull from petrochemicals?


Key Areas Addressed in this Study

  • Global demand and supply projections until 2035 by naphtha grade
  • Light and full-range naphtha market dynamics
  • Aromatics market outlook
  • Scenario analysis of the key events and structural changes impacting global naphtha markets
  • Heavy & heavy full-range naphtha outlook
  • Gasoline market outlook
  • Dynamics between crude, condensate, and naphtha within the aromatics space

Scope of Coverage

  • Structure
    • Executive Summary
    • Light & Full-Range Naphtha Trends
    • East of Suez Outlook
    • Naphtha Trade & Pricing, 2018-2035
    • Appendix
    • Global Aromatics Trends
    • Global Gasoline Trends
    • West of Suez Outlook
    • Scenario Planning
  • Deliverables
    • PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout)
    • Presentation can be arranged under terms to be mutually agreed.
    • Supporting Excel data file
      • Supply and Demand Balances by Region, Country and Naphtha Grade
      • Reformer Database
      • Naphtha Specifications

This Study will Add Value to

  • Oil Majors and Oil & Gas Companies Seeking an outside perspective on the likely future economic environment of the international condensate trading market.
  • Shipowners Conducting analysis of future trade flows and volumes.
  • Other Oil and Service Companies Any company operating in the sector should benefit from an internally consistent and detailed assessment of potential developments in the market as an alternative to reliance on forecasts from government or international organizations.
  • Petrochemical and Chemical Companies Seeking an independent outlook of the international condensate trading market.
  • Trading Houses Identifying emerging underlying shifts in trade flows.

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