Each month, FGE’s LPG Monthly Supply, Demand & Trade Balances analyses the often volatile short-term market for LPG from a global perspective. In this statistical review, we track, interpret and forecast LPG supply and demand fundamentals to deliver clear, concise analysis and balances and a fundamental summary of the LPG market.
The world of LPG trading has become increasingly unpredictable and volatile since 2020. A series of unexpected events, including the global COVID-19 pandemic, Storm Uri on the US Gulf Coast in early 2021, and more recently the war in Ukraine, have impacted LPG demand, trading patterns and prices.
FGE’s LPG Supply, Demand & Trade Balances uses a country-level, bottom-up approach to develop a regional understanding of global supply and demand market dynamics. Overlaying a global trade matrix, FGE balances trade routes and import/export requirements with a comprehensive shipping assessment to provide a fully integrated supply chain model.
Our in-depth models integrate price-elastic demand factors such as steam cracking with our in-house view of price spreads and how these will affect swing cracking demand and import requirements in different markets.
On the supply side, we look at production and demand trends for each supplier in the Middle East in order to determine export volume trends. We also examine the US market in depth, using data from various sources to arrive at monthly figures for exports and domestic inventory levels.
Subscribers will thus be able to see “behind the curtain” of FGE’s monthly LPG supply, demand and trade model, which informs FGE’s short-term outlook. To help subscribers isolate any changes, we provide a PDF summary of the main changes in fundamentals month to month.