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Condensate & Naphtha Monthly

FGE’s Condensate and Naphtha monthly dissects and examines the volatile short-term market for condensate, to deliver clear, concise and insightful views on the forward market.

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FGE’s Condensate and Naphtha Monthly dissects and examines the volatile short-term market for condensate, to deliver clear, concise, and insightful views on the forward market.

The East of Suez condensate trading market has seen some turbulence this year with the demand destruction from COVID-19 and low oil price environment affecting US condensates which have become a regular inflow to some refiners and splitters in this half of the world.

As for naphtha, weakness in gasoline demand with the COVID-19 situation has resulted in higher levels of arbitrage flows into the East, amid poor blending economics, particularly in the US Gulf coast. Cracker margins have flipped on its head as well with LPG substitution at minimal levels with low naphtha prices.

The recovery in the months to come will see uncertainty in petrochemical margins with inventory overhangs and lower consumer spending likely to weaken fundamentals. This and the onslaught of petrochemical capacity additions and expansions over the next few years will define the picture for condensate and naphtha in the East of Suez in the medium term.

This monthly report provides an Asian perspective of the short-term condensate & naphtha balances, including price outlook and fundamental projection of trade flows such as potential arbitrage opportunity and feedstock switching dynamics between condensate and naphtha.

We look closely at both condensate and naphtha supply and demand East of Suez and forecast an Eastern balance. We factor in regular flows from the West, and how much more may be needed based on Eastern requirements. On the demand side, we look into the olefin and aromatics markets which provide valuable insight into our outlook for condensate and naphtha demand in the region.

The report also contains either a Market or Term feature which highlights key development going forward, as well as dedicated sections and a data file for supply and demand fundamentals in the East and West of Suez and price outlook for the next 6 months.

Features & Benefits

  • Leading Fundamental Analysis Up-to-date comprehensive analysis of key fundamental drivers in the global condensate market.
  • Complete Coverage of the Global Condensate & Naphtha Markets Discussion on new and upcoming condensate and naphtha streams and likely buyers.
  • Margins Analysis Analysis on condensate splitter, cracker and reformer margins and an outlook on how downstream demand from the petrochemicals sector will influence margins going forward in the East.
  • Access to Regional Oil Analysts/Consultants Clients of our research, analysis, and data analytics can benefit from having consistent access to technical and/or commercial information about the condensate and naphtha markets.
  • Rapid Assessment of Events Utilization of knowledge and experience which allows rapid assessment of current and future condensate and naphtha market happenings.
  • Accurate Price Forecasts Price forecasts for condensate and naphtha benchmarks East of Suez.

Scope of Coverage

  • Data
    • Condensate supply and imports (actuals & forecasts).
    • Naphtha imports and exports to Asia by grade (actuals & forecasts).
    • Short-Term forecasts (12-months) and 12-months history.
    • Prices (actuals & forecasts): Brent, Dubai, CFR Japan Naphtha, NWSC-Brent, Senipah-Brent, LSC-Dubai, DFC-Dubai, SPC-Dubai, DFC-Naphtha, NWSC-Naphtha, Propane-Naphtha, Butane-Naphtha, PX-Naphtha, Ethylene-Naphtha, EF-Dubai, Naphtha Crack vs. Brent, Brent/Dubai.
    • Naphtha imports and exports to Asia by grade (actuals & forecasts).
    • Cracker maintenance schedule.
  • Deliverables
    • Monthly Report providing in-depth analysis of the short-term condensate and naphtha markets.
    • Consulting hours - Alongside the report, clients will have access to 3 hours of free consultation on the driving factors behind the report.
    • Monthly data files which cover country-level export and import numbers for condensate and naphtha for key East of Suez countries, as well as price forecasts.
  • Products Covered
    • Condensate
    • Naphtha

This Service Will Add Value To

  • Traders developing both trading and hedging strategies built on detailed fundamental research.
  • National Oil Companies undertaking research on key global trends and making strategic decisions.
  • Producers and marketers keen on getting a condensate demand outlook.
  • Midstream Companies formulating future policy and hedging strategies.
  • Refiners making decisions on feedstock procurement.

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