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The Condensate Forecast: 2024 Edition

Perspectives on the global condensate market.

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FGE’s detailed assessment of the mid- to long-term outlook for condensates provides comprehensive coverage of the key challenges facing the market today. In this study, we forecast condensate supply and demand globally using bottom-up modelling to explore trends in condensate trade and pricing from now until 2040.

2023 was another eventful year for the oil and gas market.

Sanctions resulting from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war prompted some condensate splitter operators in East Asia take in more volumes of the more heavily discounted HFRN cargoes from Russia. Yamal condensate continued flowing to ARA thanks to TotalEnergies’ stake in the project, but progress in the Arctic LNG 2 project faced roadblocks. Escalating tensions have also led to drone strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, including the Ust-Luga condensate splitter and the Tuapse refinery in early 2024.

Sanctions on Venezuela were temporarily lifted in October 2023, allowing the country to ramp up naphtha diluent imports from the US – though Iranian condensate continued flowing for developments with non-US/EU partners. However, the US has warned that it might reimpose sanctions on Venezuela if it does not uphold its promise of a “free and fair” presidential election.

There were a few new condensate streams in 2023. In July 2023, Reliance started production at the MJ field, but volumes will likely remain captive in India. In 3Q 2023, Iran started production at South Pars Phase 11 and will bring more wells online in the coming years. Meanwhile, output from new developments that came onstream in 2022 (Mozambique’s Coral and Israel’s Karish) continued ramping up through 2023.

In 2024, condensate splitter demand in Asia Pacific should recover more significantly despite a heavier maintenance schedule for Middle Eastern splitters. Aromatics margins could find strength from a somewhat healthy global gasoline complex, but firmer progress on refineries in the Atlantic Basin will weigh on global octane demand later in the year.

In the next decade, we expect market uncertainty to increase. On the supply side, Iran’s condensate surplus should dwindle with new projects on the horizon. However, Qatar’s North Field expansion project and Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah basin will massively expand regional condensate exports.

There remain assets with significant condensate export potential in countries such as South Africa, Vietnam and Russia that could emerge in the coming years.

There remain assets with significant condensate export potential in countries such as South Africa, Vietnam and Russia that could emerge in the coming years.

On the demand side, while we could see one or two merchant splitter condensate projects materialise by 2030, there are many other factors to consider. Dynamic shifts in the naphtha and petrochemical markets as well as the overall refining complex will set the tone for condensate markets in the long run.


Key Areas Addressed in this Study

  • Global supply and demand projections until 2040
  • Petrochemical trends in Asia
  • Condensate trade flows into Asia
  • US and West of Suez condensate outlook
  • Naphtha, long-term outlook
  • Regional condensate market dynamics
  • Middle East condensate outlook
  • Dynamics between crude, condensate, naphtha and petrochemicals.

Scope of Coverage

  • Structure
    • Introduction
    • Petrochemical and Naphtha Trends
    • Middle East
    • Asia Pacific
    • Oceania
    • North Sea and Northwest Europe
    • Mediterranean
    • Sub-Saharan Africa
    • Former Soviet Union
    • North America
    • Latin America and The Caribbean
    • Datafile 
  • Deliverables
    • PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout)
    • Presentation can be arranged under terms to be mutually agreed.
    • Supporting Excel data file

This Study will Add Value to

  • Oil Majors and Oil & Gas Companies New supply streams and increased availability of condensates from American basins to the global market will shift global slates and provide opportunities for refiners. The comprehensive report will benefit O&G companies seeking an outside perspective on the future economic environment of the international condensate trading market.
  • Oil Shipping and Storage Companies Two sectors that require an analysis of future global trade flows and an understanding of the changing condensate slates on logistical requirements in transportation and storage.
  • Petrochemical and Chemical Companies Supply-side developments in the NGLs space have significant impacts on the operating environments for the petrochemical and chemicals industries. The report’s detailed coverage of supply-side market dynamics and projections will provide a comprehensive basis for assessing supply-risks going forward.
  • International/Governmental Organizations Seeking an independent non-political perspective on the lesser- known world of these ultra-light crudes and an understanding of condensate market dynamics on key downstream outlets, namely petrochemicals and refining.


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