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Stormy Seas: IMO 2020 Update

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FGE’s Stormy Seas: IMO 2020 Update is a new fortnightly report featuring key insights and market analysis on the upcoming IMO (International Maritime Organization) sulphur specification change.

On January 1st 2020, the IMO will be implementing a cap on the amount of sulphur that is in the fuel oil used onboard ships. This upcoming bunker specification change will be the biggest upheaval the refining and shipping industries have ever faced.

FGE's Stormy Seas: IMO 2020 Update report combines insights from conversations with key stakeholders and detailed market analysis to give a fortnightly updating on this upcoming regulatory change. To do this, we leverage our extensive expertise in refining and oil markets, as well as longstanding client relationships across the refining, trading and shipping sectors.

Scope of Coverage

  • Coverage - Supply
    • Refinery Investment: Refinery additions/closures traced in detail; focusing on current and new technologies aimed at increasing low sulphur bunker fuel availability.
    • Logistics/Infrastructure: Assessing existing and planned investment in port infrastructure as well as new investment in tankage and other port infrastructure to guarantee the provision of compliant fuel.
    • Fuel Availability: Providing clarity on both overall availability and the specifications of compliant fuel, as well as the routes that it will likely be available on.
    • LNG Bunkering and Alternative Fuels: Looking at the viability as well as adoption of other competing sources of fuels, such as LNG bunkering.
  • Coverage - Demand
    • Shipping Investment: Tracking announcements through financial filings and relationships with key players in the sector to gauge the impact of decisions on IMO compliance and how this will impact overall demand for bunker fuels.
    • Competing Demand Sources: Analyzing the likely impact of other competing sources of demand (such as from the power sector) on bunker fuels and how this will impact pricing of individual bunker products.
    • Technological Advances: Dissecting the feasibility and likely impact on bunker demand of current and potential routes to compliance.
  • Coverage - Price
    • Spot Bunker Price Coverage: Leveraging 30 years of experience forecasting oil prices gives us a unique edge in understanding the fundamental implications of supply and demand and their impact on the various bunker fuels.
    • Futures & Forward Price Analysis: Helping readers navigate increased volatility in future and swaps markets, as shifting supply and demand dynamics drive increased hedging and speculative activity along the forward curve.
  • Deliverables
    • Fortnightly Report.
    • Telephone, email, video conferencing consultation with our regional gas experts.
    • Annual client meeting on the East of Suez's gas sector and market developments.

This Service Will Add Value To

  • Ship Owners and Charterers Evaluating the economics of the variety of potential fleet investments, and assessing forward fuel price exposure to help shape procurement and risk management strategies.
  • Commodity Trading Houses Identifying opportunities for value creation in terms of supplying fuels and taking advantage of potential regional arbitrage.
  • Port Authorities Identifying potential infrastructure constraints for ports, as well as potential competing bunker hubs and incentives needed from ports to ensure a smooth transition in 2020.
  • Refiners Evaluating the impact that potential refinery investments may have on fuel availability as well as high sulphur fuel oil destruction.
  • Fuel Storage Companies Keeping fuel storage companies abreast of developments at particular ports as well as changing dynamics on certain routes.

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