34th Pacific Petroleum Insiders (PPI) Briefing 2025

Dr Fesharaki shares his views on the key issues confronting the global oil and gas business.

• How exactly are geopolitical storms impacting the oil business? What is real and what is overblown?
• Global Oil Demand: What are the main drivers in a world of tariffs and policy uncertainty? How would a recession affect demand?
• Global Oil Supply: What is the future course for Russia, Iran and Venezuela? How will sanctions evolve? What does the future hold for US and Canadian production? How well can OPEC+ balance the market? Why is OPEC putting off plans for new capacity?
• Longer-term Issues: When will peak demand come and what does it mean for the oil business?
• Will it be better to be positioned upstream or downstream? What will the refinery of the future look like? 

• Tightening Atlantic Basin balances as an opportunity for East of Suez refiners.
• Structurally lower clean freight to improve Asian refiners’ flexibility.
• Dangote and Olmeca update.
• Across the barrel: A product by product outlook.

• Which parts of the barrel will grow amid the energy transition? Which parts are exposed? Where are the potential synergies?
• Where is excitement warranted, and where should you tread carefully?
• What do growing disparities in carbon costs across markets imply? Who really wins, who loses?
• Bottom line in terms of the impact on oil and key risks ahead.

• Where will demand grow and for which products? Where will we see declines and what are the key wild cards/uncertainties?
• Outlook for the Asian refining landscape.
• Who is really serious about building/expanding refineries and why?
• Which refineries will likely close?
• Longs vs shorts: How will product balances change and what does it mean for margins?
• What are the key uncertainties to watch for and plan around?  

• What are the most interesting opportunities across the barrel for traders ahead?
• How are Asian refiners dealing with tariffs and sanctions issues, Chinese exports, fluctuating margins, etc.? Are strategies shifting?
• A concise tour of critical developments across the region:
• Refinery focused: South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan
• Trade focused: Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Pakistan, Australia and New Zealand.

• China’s oil demand continues to face headwinds. How has 2025 shaped up and what can we expect in 2026?
• We have seen more evidence of peak demand for some products. How fast could the decline be?
• Sanctions continue to shape China’s crude and feedstocks intake. What are the incentives and how might they change in the future?
• China is still adding refining capacity, but the priorities have shifted. What’s coming and what does it mean for the product markets?
• How are refineries coping with the rapidly shifting demand scene?
• Could quota policy shift in the next few years? How much more could China push out if quota restrictions were removed? Why and when might this happen?

• India’s Demand Outlook: Key drivers and policies to watch.
• Indian refiners are seeking to fast-track refinery expansion and grassroots projects. Are these too ambitious or are they well-founded? What will actually materialize?
• How will India navigate the path forward amidst shifting sanctions and crude availability?
• How will the large private refiners approach the market in the near-to-long term?
• What are the impacts on product trade amid rising biofuels blending?

• How will Japanese refiners deal with a faster-than-expected decline in domestic demand due to structural changes? Will they proceed with capacity reduction plans or turn to trade?
• Will Japan’s crude slate change and/or become more diversified?
• Is cross-industry integration possible?

• Middle East oil demand: Growth is expected until the late 2030s, although at a much slower pace than in the past, with transport and petrochemical demand growth partially offset by an ongoing demand contraction in the power sector.
• Where does the region stand in its “fuel switching” journey in the power sector as well as developing petrochemical projects given the continuous growth in local feedstock supply?
• Update on refining projects: With the peak of new capacity additions behind us, little is left in the pipeline. However, there are several proposed projects across the region that may emerge later for completion towards the 2030s. Which projects are real and which are aspirational?
• With significant expansion in condensate and NGLs output across the region in the coming years, how are the region’s rising product balances expected to affect its products trade outlook?
• With OPEC+ quotas still playing a key role in the region’s crude production and capacity expansion plans, what is the region’s total oil supply outlook in the long term?

• Naphtha, gasoline and aromatics: the interplay of octane balancing that swings the crack.
• Back to a supply push? What to expect on the LPG front in the coming years.
• Unchartered territory: deeper into the olefins downcycle.
• Will ethane be the silver bullet for petrochemical operators?